Since the bear market decline of February 19 – March 23, the U.S. and international stock and bond markets have staged a remarkable recovery. Investor confidence seemed to be restored throughout much of the 2nd quarter as unemployment and manufacturing reports pointed to an economy that was also recovering from the effects of the coronavirus lockdown. By the end of the 2nd quarter, momentum was building and the makings of a (near) “V” shaped market recovery was well under way.
July very much kept that momentum going with powerful rallies in the global equity markets. But then came the resurgence of the coronavirus and the return of partial lockdowns in several states. Weekly unemployment reports soon began to reflect the renewed lockdowns, and concerns over the continued recovery of the U.S. economy followed.
August is the beginning of the 3rd quarter of 2020 and the beginning of two crucial periods of time. First, on average, the 3rd quarter is historically the worst three months of the year. This is, however, not to say that will be the case this year. The old adage, “Sell in May and go away” certainly did not hold for the stock markets this year. Second, we are less than three months from the 2020 Presidential election and voter tensions seem quite high.
While the time of year and the upcoming elections do not necessarily set the stage for a significant market correction like we saw in February/March, we do see the markets beginning to take a “pause” after four months of stellar performance. This may also include increased volatility as the economy absorbs the effects of the resurgence of the coronavirus.
How are you feeling now as an investor? Maybe somewhere between anxious and confident? We at Hastie Financial Group are always here to have a conversation with you about the market, the economy and how you’re feeling about the upcoming few months. We are all in this together!